Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.