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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.