Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
